₿ BTC Signal Lab V5
Kalshi 15-minute Bitcoin • read-only • no bets*Signal strength is a heuristic index, NOT a probability. Coinbase spot does not determine Kalshi's final settlement; Kalshi uses its designated reference index.
Market odds — separate from model
Bid/ask unavailable
Kalshi odds are displayed for comparison and are not inputs to the directional model.
See this market on KalshiRecent Bitcoin price
Waiting for 1-minute candles…
Data health & controls
No recent update
Checks every 20 seconds while open. iOS can suspend Safari when minimized. No background predictions, persistent push alerts, automatic trading, or cloud database are enabled.
Saved prediction checkpoints
Signals are captured once per round at the first observation in each checkpoint window (10, 5, and 2 minutes remaining). Results are graded only after Kalshi posts its official settlement. Missed windows are not invented later.
Accuracy and hypothetical returns are not proof of a profitable strategy. Estimated cash-flow uses displayed ask at signal time and excludes fees, execution risk and slippage.
| Round | When | Pick | Ask | Official |
|---|
Recent official Kalshi settlements
Past results are for research only; they are NEVER counted as predictions made by this bot.
Loading…
| Closed | Official | Target |
|---|
Saved history, restores & diagnostics
Checking stored history…
Technical details & model limitations
This model combines (1) price distance from the official Kalshi target, (2) 5m/15m momentum, (3) trend alignment, and (4) realized one-minute volatility. It is not trained or calibrated. It avoids a directional pick if the target is missing, the spot quote or candles are stale, prices are inconsistent, or the signal is weak. To evaluate it properly, collect an unbiased forward history across many rounds and compare against the quoted purchase price and all trading costs. No mathematical edge has been established.
Kalshi YES resolves by the official reference-index rule; Coinbase trade price can disagree near the boundary. Historical win rates must not be interpreted as probability forecasts. A sound alert works only while the page is open and active.
Research software only. No Kalshi account connection, no orders, no wagering automation, no claimed prediction accuracy. Model V5 uses spot data that can differ from the official settlement index.